A study last month by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on the risk of automation and its interaction with training and the use of skills at work, found that previous predictions on market disruption has been significantly over-estimated.
Since Frey and Osborne (2013) shocked analysts and policy makers worldwide with a study suggesting that 47% of jobs in the United States are at elevated risk of being automated, several other researchers and institutions have contributed to the debate, all producing estimates in the high double digits.
The OECD research improves on other international estimates of the individual risk of automation by using a more disaggregated occupational classification and identifying the same automation bottlenecks emerging from the experts’ discussion. Hence, it more closely aligns to the initial assessment of the potential automation deriving from the development of Machine Learning. Furthermore, their study investigates the same methodology using national data from Germany and United Kingdom, providing insights into the robustness of the results.
Across 32 countries, the OECD indicates approximately 14% of jobs will be put at risk because of AI. This figure fluctuates significantly between countries, with Slovakia having a job risk of 33% at the highest level, and Norway with a much lower percentage at 6%.
You can read a summary report here – http://www.oecd.org/els/emp/future-of-work/Automation-policy-brief-2018.pdf
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